Who Needs Doctors in 2030? at punctuative! by Matt Winn

Who Needs Doctors in 2030?

Published by Matt December 21st, 2006 in Books, Entrepreneurship, Healthcare, Science and Tech

I’m in the midst of reading Andy Kessler’s new book, “The End of Medicine.” It’s an important read for those building or investing in healthcare services companies.

Kessler plays the layman in the industry peering at it behind the lens of a tech/finance junkie. He sets out with the basic understanding that the healthcare system is enormous and bloated with cost, and brings hope that there’s a killing to be made in overhauling it with technological intervention.

That’s an old tune, and Kessler’s no geriatric fiddler. His ”special sauce” lies in uncovering the diagnostic inventions that will remake the industry. Sure, electronic medical records will help, but Kessler digs and digs for stuff that will not just offer productivity to the existing infrastructure, but rearchitect the infrastructure with bits and bytes. Machines that read mammograms for a fraction of the cost of radiologists. That get cheaper and cheaper every year. That scale.

Kessler writes:

I’ve seen it with PCs, cell phones, TiVo, routers, DVD players, electronic engine controller in autos, and video games. 3-D graphics live on this learning curve, providing more and more photorealistic animations. And just like that, because of new technology entire careers disappear like trolley car conductors of old - phone operators, tellers, stock traders, librarians, postal sorters, numbers runners for bookies, draftsmen, magazine layout experts, film editors, stock traders and on and on. Were doctors next? I secretly hoped so.

Reading the above, I couldn’t help but think back to a session at the Always On Innovation Summit this summer at Stanford. It was called “What’s Your Long Bet?” (link to video archive), and it was participatory. The audience placed long bets, ones that could be quantified and were specific. Mine was: “By 2030, doctors per capita (domestically) will at least halve.” Considering that this ratio rose by nearly 50% between 1980 and 2001, that’s a pretty bold claim. I think, though, that ever more sophisticated and cost-effective diagnostic tools and information services will offer substitutes.

I’m not finished with “The End of Medicine,” but I think Kessler might agree.

del.icio.us | Digg it | reddit

4 Responses to “Who Needs Doctors in 2030?”

Feed for this Entry Trackback Address

1 Guy Semmes Dec 28th, 2006 at 3:00 pm

A decrease in MD’s by 2030 is a real long shot even considering all the technological advances or the possibility of Socialized medicine. But if you take the Insurance companies out of the equation and the drug marketing dollars then I’m in.
2 Matt Dec 28th, 2006 at 4:58 pm

Guy,

Thanks for weighing in. I’m still standing behind tech advances which should not only obviate the need for doctors in many circumstances, but also enable low-cost outsourcing. As example, doctors are already operating remotely on patients (see Wikipedia article here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Remote_surgery).

I’m also placing a big bet on education and real-time info services. There’s no way we remain as ill-informed about how our everyday actions (nutrition, exercise, stress) impact our health over the next quarter century.

Best,
Matt
3 David Dufresne Jan 8th, 2007 at 3:17 pm

Great post Matt,

I will definitely check out that book. And thanks for the AO link, I had to miss that session. Tech in healthcare in a hot topic in Canada, where the costs of our socialized system are getting harder to control, with population aging and all other factors considered. But the shift to new technologies is slow. Our governments aren’t exactly heat-seekers and early-adopters… Same goes for doctors.

But I tend to agree with your prediction. One of our pf companies http://www.newittech.com/ are making the same bet and they’re getting a lot of traction, mostly in the US (not surprising, since the technology buyers are more ROI-sensitive) and France (more unexpected).
4 Matt Jan 9th, 2007 at 3:57 am

Thanks, David, for your kind words and pointing out New IT Healthcare. Our own investment in the DM/wellness space is HealthMedia (http://www.healthmedia.com). After seeing this video (http://video.zdnet.com/CIOSessions/?p=81), I’m realizing that “telemonitoring” via implanted device is closer than I expected. If you take the time to follow the link and watch the video, you’ll see Harvard Medical School CIO John Halamka describe an RFID device that’s implanted in his arm amongst other interesting tidbits.

Best,
Matt